Projections of extreme weather events according to climate change scenarios and populations at-risk in Brazil

Leydson Galvíncio Dantas (), Andrêa Jacqueline Fortes Ferreira, Jony Arrais Pinto Junior, Taísa Rodrigues Cortes, Danielson Jorge Delgado Neves, Beatriz Fátima Alves Oliveira and Ismael Henrique Silveira
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Leydson Galvíncio Dantas: Federal University of Bahia
Andrêa Jacqueline Fortes Ferreira: Oswaldo Cruz Foundation
Jony Arrais Pinto Junior: Fluminense Federal University
Taísa Rodrigues Cortes: Oswaldo Cruz Foundation
Danielson Jorge Delgado Neves: Oswaldo Cruz Foundation
Beatriz Fátima Alves Oliveira: Oswaldo Cruz Foundation
Ismael Henrique Silveira: Federal University of Bahia

Climatic Change, 2025, vol. 178, issue 8, No 12, 18 pages

Abstract: Abstract Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, heavy rainfall and droughts, have become more frequent and intense in Brazil. According to climate change scenarios, this trend, which has a negative impact on people’s health and living conditions, will continue. Here, we analysed indicators for extreme weather events resulting from climate change, projected for the 21st century, alongside socio-demographic indicators for Brazilian municipalities, in an attempt to identify populations exposed to the risks of the climate crisis. We calculated the values of indicators for extreme air temperature and precipitation events, based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 data, for a reference period and for the future, as well as socio-demographic indicators based on recent census data. Using Spearman’s coefficient, we then calculated anomaly indicators for the future time intervals and analysed correlations with the socio-demographic indicators. Our results indicate a reduction in cold days and an increase in hot days and heat waves in both scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), with the most changes occurring in the highest emission scenario. The extreme precipitation indicators suggest both an increase and a reduction in intense precipitation and droughts in a number of the country’s regions. The projected changes are more intense in the highest emission scenario, and in the North and Northeast regions. We noted a trend for greatest occurrence of extreme events in locations with a higher proportion of Black, Parda/Brown, Indigenous and Quilombola populations, and the socially vulnerable. We recommend that policies to adapt and mitigate the impacts of climate change focus on reducing inequalities and promoting climate justice.

Keywords: Climate change; Climate projections; Extreme weather events; Climate justice (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03989-2

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