Climate-corrected modeling of biomass burning in Equatorial Asia: the roles of climate change and anthropogenic control

Shuai Yin, Chong Shi (), Dabin Ji, Huazhe Shang, Nan Li, Zhongyi Sun, Tangzhe Nie, Kunpeng Yi, Meng Guo, Xin Zhao, Lan Wu and Xinlu Liu
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Shuai Yin: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Chong Shi: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Dabin Ji: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Huazhe Shang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Nan Li: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
Zhongyi Sun: Hainan University
Tangzhe Nie: Heilongjiang University
Kunpeng Yi: Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Meng Guo: Northeast Normal University
Xin Zhao: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Lan Wu: Hainan University
Xinlu Liu: Hainan University

Climatic Change, 2025, vol. 178, issue 9, No 11, 19 pages

Abstract: Abstract Biomass burning occurs perennially during the dry season in Equatorial Asia, causing ecological degradation, disrupting public activities, and impacting the health of millions of residents. This study introduces a novel climate-corrected model, integrating decomposition analysis and stepwise multiple linear regression, to assess the impact of climate condition and anthropogenic control on the interannual variability of biomass burning in Equatorial Asia. Using original satellite-based observations without climate correction, the result revealed that the number of active fire spots in the study region exhibited an insignificant decreasing trend (p > 0.05), with a yearly decrease rate of − 2272 (95% confidence interval, − 6490 to 1964) spots from 2003 to 2020. This statistically insignificant trend was primarily due to disturbance of the substantial increases in fire activities during El Niño years. However, after applying climate correction, the results demonstrated a significant mitigation of biomass burning intensity (p

Keywords: El Niño; Fire radiative power (FRP); Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS); Time series decomposition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03996-3

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