Accuracy of precipitation forecasts: finding the right threshold for what is considered rain

Darren Keeley () and Eric A. Suess ()
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Darren Keeley: California State University
Eric A. Suess: California State University

Computational Statistics, 2023, vol. 38, issue 3, No 2, 1123-1134

Abstract: Abstract Accurately predicting the rain is a fundamental component of weather forecasting. However, looking at the data provided for the 2018 ASA Data Expo Challenge, forecasts were consistently underpredicting the proportion of rainy days. The default threshold in inches of rain for what is considered a rainy day is 0.01 inches or more as defined by the National Weather Service. We found that adjusting the threshold for each city dramatically increases probability of precipitation forecast accuracies, and that generally across the United States a threshold of 0.07 inches is better than 0.01.

Keywords: 2018 ASA Data Expo; Weather forecasting; Threshold for rain; Data science (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s00180-023-01337-5

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