A simulation model to analyze the behavior of a faculty retirement plan: a case study in Mexico

Marco Antonio Montufar-Benítez, Jaime Mora-Vargas, Carlos Arturo Soto-Campos (), Gilberto Pérez-Lechuga and José Raúl Castro-Esparza
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Marco Antonio Montufar-Benítez: Universidad Autonoma del Estado de Hidalgo
Jaime Mora-Vargas: Tecnologico de Monterrey
Carlos Arturo Soto-Campos: Universidad Autonoma del Estado de Hidalgo
Gilberto Pérez-Lechuga: Universidad Autonoma del Estado de Hidalgo
José Raúl Castro-Esparza: Universidad Cristobal Colon

Computational Statistics, 2025, vol. 40, issue 6, No 7, 3006 pages

Abstract: Abstract The main goal in this study was to determine confidence intervals for average age, average seniority, and average money-savings, for faculty members in a university retirement system using a simulation model. The simulation—built-in Arena—considers age, seniority, and the probability of continuing in the institution as the main input random variables in the model. An annual interest rate of 7% and an average annual salary increase of 3% were considered. The scenario simulated consisted of the teacher and the university making contributions, the faculty 5% of his salary, and the university 5% of the teacher’s salary. Since the base salaries with which teachers join to university are variable, we considered a monthly salary of MXN 23 181.2, corresponding to full-time teachers with middle salaries. The results obtained by a simulation of 30 replicates showed that the confidence intervals for the average age at retirement were (55.0, 55.2) years, for the average seniority (22.1, 22.3) years, and for the average savings amount (329 795.2, 341 287.0) MXN. Moreover, the risk that a retiree of 62 years of age and more of 25 years of work, is alive after his savings runs out is approximately 98% and this happens at 64 years of age.

Keywords: Business analytics; Teaching staff; Private pensions; Risk; Life table (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s00180-024-01456-7

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