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Forecasting industrial production and the early detection of turning points

Giancarlo Bruno and Claudio Lupi ()

Empirical Economics, 2004, vol. 29, issue 3, 647-671

Abstract: In this paper we propose a simple model to forecast industrial production in Italy up to 6 months ahead. We show that the forecasts produced using the model outperform some popular forecasts as well as those stemming from an ARIMA model used as a benchmark and those from some single equation alternative models. We show how the use of these forecasts can improve the estimate of a cyclical indicator and the early detection of turning points for the manufacturing sector. This is of paramount importance for short-term economic analysis. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2004

Keywords: Forecasting; VAR models; industrial production; cyclical indicators; C53; C32; E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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Working Paper: Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning Points (2003) Downloads
Working Paper: Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning POints (2001) Downloads
Working Paper: Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning Points (2001) Downloads
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