Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning Points

Giancarlo Bruno and Claudio Lupi

Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers from University of Molise, Department of Economics

Abstract: In this paper we propose a simple model to forecast industrial production in Italy up to 6 months ahead. We show that the forecasts produced using the model outperform some popular forecasts as well as those stemming from an ARIMA model used as a benchmark and those from some single equation alternative models. We show how the use of these forecasts can improve the estimate of a cyclical indicator and the early detection of turning points for the manufacturing sector. This is of paramount importance for short-term economic analysis.

Keywords: Forecasting; VAR Models; Industrial production; Cyclical indicators. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2003-04-14
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published in Empirical Economics, vol. 29, no. 3. pp. 647-671.

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http://web.unimol.it/progetti/repec/mol/ecsdps/ESDP03004.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Forecasting industrial production and the early detection of turning points (2004)
Working Paper: Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning POints (2001)
Working Paper: Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning Points (2001)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mol:ecsdps:esdp03004

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