Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis
Thomas Kostka () and
Federico Masera ()
Empirical Economics, 2015, vol. 48, issue 3, 1203-1231
In this paper, we exploit micro data from the ECB survey of professional forecasters to examine the link between the characteristics of macroeconomic density forecasts (such as their location, spread, skewness, and tail risk) and density forecast performance. Controlling for the effects of common macroeconomic shocks, we apply cross-sectional and fixed effect panel regressions linking such density characteristics and density forecast performance. Our empirical results suggest that many macroeconomic experts could systematically improve their density performance by correcting a downward bias in their variances. Aside from this shortcoming in the second moment characteristics of the individual densities, other higher moment features, such as skewness or variation in the degree of probability mass given to the tails of the predictive distributions, tend—as a rule—not to contribute significantly to enhancing individual density forecast performance. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015
Keywords: Density forecasting; Forecast evaluation; Survey of professional forecasters; Panel data; C22; C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
Working Paper: Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis (2014)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:empeco:v:48:y:2015:i:3:p:1203-1231
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... rics/journal/181/PS2
Access Statistics for this article
Empirical Economics is currently edited by Robert M. Kunst, Arthur H.O. van Soest, Bertrand Candelon, Subal C. Kumbhakar and Joakim Westerlund
More articles in Empirical Economics from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().