The late 1970s bubble in Dutch collectible postage stamps

Philip Hans Franses and Wouter Knecht
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Wouter Knecht: Erasmus School of Economics

Empirical Economics, 2016, vol. 50, issue 4, No 3, 1215-1228

Abstract: Abstract Collectible postage stamp prices in the Netherlands witnessed a bubble in the late 1970s, while prices rapidly floored in the mid-1980s. We analyze 500 individual stamps prices (instead of a single index) to examine whether the bubble could somehow have been predicted and whether there were early warning signals. Also, we study whether the characteristics of these stamps mediated the bubble and the price landing afterward. Scarcity and initial price levels appear to have predictive value in various dimensions. Implications for recognizing bubbles in other asset prices are discussed.

Keywords: Price bubbles; Philately; Postage stamps; Forecasting; Positive feedback (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G11 G12 Z11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Working Paper: The Late 1970's Bubble in Dutch Collectible Postage Stamps (2012)
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DOI: 10.1007/s00181-015-0974-3

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