The Late 1970's Bubble in Dutch Collectible Postage Stamps

Philip Hans Franses and Wouter Knecht

No EI 2013-02, Econometric Institute Research Papers from Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute

Abstract: Collectible postage stamp prices in the Netherlands witnessed a bubble in the late 1970’s, while prices rapidly floored in the mid 1980’s. We analyze 500 individual stamps prices (instead of a single index) to examine if the bubble could somehow have been predicted and whether there were early warning signals. Also, we study whether the characteristics of these stamps mediated the bubble and the price landing afterwards. Scarcity and initial price levels seem to have predictive value in various dimensions. Implications for recognizing bubbles in other asset prices are discussed.

Keywords: forecasting; positive feedback; postage stamps; price bubbles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G11 G12 Z11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-02-01
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Journal Article: The late 1970s bubble in Dutch collectible postage stamps (2016)
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