Advances in Drama Theory for Managing Global Hazards and Disasters. Part II: Coping with Global Climate Change and Environmental Catastrophe

Jason K. Levy (), Keith W. Hipel and N. Howard
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Jason K. Levy: Virginia Commonwealth University
Keith W. Hipel: University of Waterloo
N. Howard: Sheffield Hallam University

Group Decision and Negotiation, 2009, vol. 18, issue 4, No 3, 317-334

Abstract: Abstract We explore issues of group decision making for reducing global environmental risk, with particular reference to the political dynamics surrounding international agreements on tackling climate change. Continuing political delays in deciding to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may make it necessary to resort to high risk and controversial geo-engineering solutions, such as injecting large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, despite the unforeseen, potentially catastrophic consequences that these entail. Advances in drama theory (dt.2) are used to analyze the prospects for agreement on reducing or stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions, following the Bali agreement of December 2007. It is concluded that Western nations and emerging economies are behaving like players in a game of “chicken”, each expecting the other to take on the main burden of emissions reduction. We judge it unlikely that either will play a full part until it is too late for emissions reduction alone to avert environmental catastrophe. At that point, parties will resort to geo-engineering “fixes”, despite the risks. However, all such forecasts are conditional on decisions made and attitudes taken by political leaders and the public. Our analysis serves to pinpoint the relevant decisions and attitudes.

Keywords: Drama theory; Climate change; Geo-engineering; National security; Conflict resolution; Decision support (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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DOI: 10.1007/s10726-008-9144-8

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