A novel assessment approach based on group evidential reasoning and risk attitude

Chaoyu Zheng (), Benhong Peng (), Xuan Zhao (), Anxia Wan () and Mu Yue ()
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Chaoyu Zheng: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Benhong Peng: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Xuan Zhao: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Anxia Wan: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Mu Yue: Singapore University of Technology and Design

Group Decision and Negotiation, 2023, vol. 32, issue 4, No 7, 925-964

Abstract: Abstract In the multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) analysis, besides the weight of the expert, reliability is another important concept bound up with experts despite it receiving little attention. In addition, the risk attitude of decision-makers is particularly important to decision-making. Considering these two important factors simultaneously, the uncertain evidential reasoning (ER) MAGDM approach based on expert reliability and risk attitude is proposed. In this approach, the best worst method (BWM) is used to determine each attribute weight. The expert reliability is determined by integrating similarity measures between the assessments provided before and after group analysis and discussion (GAD) and optimizing the drawbacks of the reliability model of the original interval-value under global ignorance. The prospect function of assessment grades is introduced to rank alternatives by considering the risk attitude of decision-makers. Taking the risk assessment of public health emergencies as an example, the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed methods are analyzed.

Keywords: Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making; Expert Reliability; Evidential Reasoning; Best Worst Method; Prospect Theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s10726-023-09830-4

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