Estimating the economic and climate impacts of nuclear power in Turkey: hypothetical integration and dynamic CGE analysis

K. Ali Akkemik and Shinya Kato ()
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Shinya Kato: Yamaguchi University

International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, 2023, vol. 17, issue 2, No 9, 489-532

Abstract: Abstract Turkey is launching a nuclear power plant (NPP) that will go operational in 2023. While it is expected to contribute to secure supply of energy, there are concerns about the environment. We construct a dynamic CGE model to examine the potential economic and environmental impacts of the NPP during the period 2023–2050. For this purpose, we estimate a social accounting matrix by hypothetically integrating a nuclear power sector. The results show that CO2 emissions are reduced by 1.3% by 2050 compared to the baseline without NPP. The reduction in emissions from electricity generation and transport services is decisive in this decline. In addition, while real GDP stays above the baseline in general, it falls below the long-run baseline trend after 2045. We also show that the government’s abatement policies should focus on high-emission sectors, construction, and non-metallic minerals, in particular.

Keywords: Turkey; Nuclear energy; CGE model; Hypothetical integration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s42495-023-00113-z

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