Welcome to the Club — On the Accuracy of Growth Forecasts for China

Ullrich Heilemann ()
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Ullrich Heilemann: University of Leipzig

Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, 2017, vol. 52, issue 4, 247-250

Abstract: Abstract Forecasts for the Chinese economy are often seen as unreliable. This impedes a proper assessment of the country’s course, and given that China is the world’s second-largest economy, it also has implications for international projections. This article examines the accuracy of real GDP forecasts by three international forecasters and two German forecasters over the period 1991-2015. While forecasters had considerable diffi culties in tracking the large upswings in China in the 1990s and early 2000s, they were quite accurate for the period 2004-2015, particularly when comparing the IMF’s forecasts for China with its forecasts for the United States or Germany. The forecast accuracy found in the Chinese Five-Year Plans is also surprisingly high.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/s10272-017-0683-6

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