Bayesian Analysis of $$^{210}$$ 210 Pb Dating

Marco A. Aquino-López (), Maarten Blaauw (), J. Andrés Christen () and Nicole K. Sanderson ()
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Marco A. Aquino-López: Queen’s University Belfast
Maarten Blaauw: Queen’s University Belfast
J. Andrés Christen: Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas (CIMAT)
Nicole K. Sanderson: University of Exeter

Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, 2018, vol. 23, issue 3, No 1, 317-333

Abstract: Abstract In studies of environmental change of the past few centuries, $$^{210}$$ 210 Pb dating is often used to obtain chronologies for sedimentary sequences. One of the most commonly used approaches to estimate the age of material at different depths in a sequence is to assume a constant rate of supply (CRS) or influx of ‘unsupported’ $$^{210}$$ 210 Pb from the atmosphere, together with a constant or varying amount of ‘supported’ $$^{210}$$ 210 Pb. Current $$^{210}$$ 210 Pb dating models do not use a proper statistical framework and provide poor estimates of the uncertainties. Here, we develop a new model for $$^{210}$$ 210 Pb dating, where ages and values of supported and unsupported $$^{210}$$ 210 Pb form part of the parameters. We apply our model to a case study from Canada as well as to some simulated examples. Our model can extend beyond the current CRS approach, deal with asymmetric errors and mix $$^{210}$$ 210 Pb with other types of dating, thus obtaining more robust, realistic and statistically better defined age estimates.

Keywords: Chronology; Constant rate of supply; Lead dating; MCMC; Sediment core (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s13253-018-0328-7

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