A Case-Crossover Study of the Impact of the Modifying Industrial Operations Protocol on the Frequency of Industrial Forestry-Caused Wildland Fires in Ontario, Canada

Kevin Granville (), Douglas G. Woolford, C. B. Dean and Colin B. McFayden
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Kevin Granville: University of Western Ontario
Douglas G. Woolford: University of Western Ontario
C. B. Dean: University of Waterloo
Colin B. McFayden: Ontario Ministry of Northern Development, Mines, Natural Resources and Forestry, Aviation, Forest Fire and Emergency Services

Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, 2023, vol. 28, issue 2, No 2, 219-242

Abstract: Abstract Wildland fire prevention and mitigation is of mutual interest to both government and the forest industry. In 1989, the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry introduced the Woods Modification Guidelines that provided rules on how forestry operations should be modified based on local fire danger conditions. Those guidelines were replaced by the Modifying Industrial Operations Protocol (MIOP) in 2008. One objective of MIOP is to allow forestry operations to be done safely for as long as possible as the fire danger increases. We investigate the impacts of these sets of regulations on the frequency of industrial forestry-caused (IDF) wildland fires in the province of Ontario, Canada. Data from 1976 to 2019 are analyzed. A case-crossover study finds no evidence to suggest that MIOP’s greater flexibility in operating hours has increased the probability of IDF fire occurrences. This result indicates that MIOP’s regulations have had the desired effect of allowing longer working hours on days with heightened fire risk without adding to the seasonal wildland fire load.

Keywords: Conditional logistic regression; Fire frequency; Forest fire; Wildland fire prevention; Wildland fire risk mitigation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s13253-022-00497-z

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