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The effect of tax policy uncertainty on incentivization, managerial effort and total surplus

Alexandra Spaeth ()
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Alexandra Spaeth: Former member of the Institute of Company Taxation and Tax Theory

Journal of Business Economics, 2025, vol. 95, issue 6, No 3, 839-869

Abstract: Abstract This paper examines the effect of tax policy uncertainty on incentivization and managerial effort in an agency model with risk-averse principal and agent. If the agent’s effort is unobservable, the agent’s variable share of profit acts as a risk-sharing and incentivizing instrument. Then, a countercyclical tax base policy at the agent level or a procyclical policy at the principal level can increase the agent’s variable share of profit, whose increase in turn increases the agent’s effort. This theoretical finding favors a procyclical tax policy at the company level (principal) and a countercyclical one at the employee level (agent). Tax policy uncertainty in the sense of tax base risk makes this increase in effort possible and strengthens effects. Additionally, under a countercyclical tax base policy at the agent level, tax base risk at the agent level up to a certain level increases overall utility and thus total surplus.

Keywords: Agency model; Tax base risk; Tax policy uncertainty; Procyclical; Countercyclical (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D86 H21 M52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11573-025-01227-w

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