Inflation risk and equity valuation: a critical review

Andreas Schüler ()
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Andreas Schüler: University of the Bundeswehr Munich

Journal of Business Economics, 2025, vol. 95, issue 7, No 2, 957-974

Abstract: Abstract This paper reassesses how inflation risk is addressed in CAPM-based equity valuation models. By distinguishing between two consistent valuation frameworks—one assuming a deterministic real interest rate, the other a deterministic nominal rate—we demonstrate that many previous attempts to adjust the CAPM for inflation are either flawed, or equivalent to the standard formulation. Using these frameworks as benchmarks, we critically assess prior contributions and identify inconsistencies. It is shown that the alleged deviations from, and dangers to, correct valuation are largely unfounded, as many proposed modifications prove equivalent to the standard CAPM. The paper emphasizes the need for consistent treatment of inflation across both cash flows and discount rates.

Keywords: Asset pricing; Valuation; Inflation; CAPM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 G12 G32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11573-025-01233-y

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