Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?

Robert Lehmann and Antje Weyh ()
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Antje Weyh: Regional IAB Office Saxony

Journal of Business Cycle Research, 2016, vol. 12, issue 1, No 5, 117 pages

Abstract: Abstract In this paper we evaluate the forecasting performance of employment expectations for employment growth in 15 European states. Our data cover the period from the first quarter 1998 to the fourth quarter 2014. With in-sample analyses and pseudo out-of-sample exercises, we find that for most of the European states considered, the survey-based indicator model outperforms common benchmark models. It is therefore a powerful tool for generating more accurate employment forecasts. We observe the best results for one quarter ahead predictions that are primarily the aim of the survey question. However, employment expectations also work well for longer forecast horizons in some countries.

Keywords: Employment forecasting; European business survey; Employment expectations; Granger causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E27 J00 J49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

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Working Paper: Forecasting employment in Europe: Are survey results helpful? (2015)
Working Paper: Forecasting employment in Europe: Are survey results helpful? (2014)
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DOI: 10.1007/s41549-016-0002-5

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