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Journal of Business Cycle Research

2016 - 2023

Current editor(s): Michael Graff

Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().

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Volume 19, issue 2, 2023

ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts pp. 119-148 Downloads
Kajal Lahiri and Cheng Yang
The Comovement Between Forecast Errors for Real GDP and Its Deflator in Six OECD Countries: Did Supply Shocks Become Less Dominant During the Great Moderation? pp. 149-169 Downloads
Bryce Kanago
Nowcasting Turkish Food Inflation Using Daily Online Prices pp. 171-190 Downloads
Barış Soybilgen, M. Ege Yazgan and Hüseyin Kaya
The Usefulness of High-Frequency Alternative Data to Obtain Nowcasts for Japan’s GDP: Evidence from Credit Card Data pp. 191-211 Downloads
Satoshi Urasawa
Applicability and Accomplishments of DSGE Modeling: A Critical Review pp. 213-239 Downloads
Adem Feto, M. K. Jayamohan and Arnis Vilks

Volume 19, issue 1, 2023

Monetary Policy in Oil Exporting Countries with Fixed Exchange Rate and Open Capital Account: Expectations Matter pp. 1-22 Downloads
Omar Chafik
Are German National Accounts informationally efficient? pp. 23-42 Downloads
Roland Döhrn
The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey pp. 43-94 Downloads
Robert Lehmann
Relative Performance of Business and Consumer Economic Expectations Across EU Countries pp. 95-117 Downloads
Richard T. Curtin

Volume 18, issue 3, 2022

The Effect of Communication and Credibility on Fiscal Disagreement: Empirical Evidence from Colombia pp. 215-238 Downloads
Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro, Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata and Cristina Isabel Ramos-Barroso
A New Theory of Expectations pp. 239-259 Downloads
Richard T. Curtin
Determination of Quebec's Quarterly Real GDP and Analysis of the Business Cycle, 1948–1980 pp. 261-288 Downloads
Mario Fortin, Marcelin Joanis, Philippe Kabore and Luc Savard
The Chemistry of the Macroeconomy pp. 289-313 Downloads
Robert Gmeiner
Adjustment Speed toward Target Leverage Throughout the Vietnamese Corporate Life Cycle: Under-Versus Over-the-Target Firms pp. 315-341 Downloads
An Thai and Radu Burlacu
Political Budget Cycle: A Sub-National Evidence from Pakistan pp. 343-367 Downloads
Rabia Nazir, Muhammad Nasir and Idrees Khawaja

Volume 18, issue 2, 2022

Machine Learning Dynamic Switching Approach to Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks pp. 129-157 Downloads
Jeronymo Marcondes Pinto and Jennifer Castle
COVID-19 and Seasonal Adjustment pp. 159-169 Downloads
Barend Abeln and Jan Jacobs
A Wavelet Method for Detecting Turning Points in the Business Cycle pp. 171-187 Downloads
C. Colther, J. L. Rojo and R. Hornero
Bond Yields Movement Similarities and Synchronization in the G7: A Time–Frequency Analysis pp. 189-214 Downloads
João Martins

Volume 18, issue 1, 2022

New Findings Regarding the Out-of-Sample Predictive Impact of the Price of Crude Oil on the United States Industrial Production pp. 1-35 Downloads
Nima Nonejad
Constructing and Characterising the Aggregate South African Financial Cycle: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach pp. 37-67 Downloads
Milan Christian Wet and Ilse Botha
A Customized Machine Learning Algorithm for Discovering the Shapes of Recovery: Was the Global Financial Crisis Different? pp. 69-99 Downloads
Gonzalo Castañeda and Luis Castro Peñarrieta
Co-movement of Cyclical Components Approach to Construct a Coincident Index of Business Cycles pp. 101-127 Downloads
Koki Kyo, Hideo Noda and Genshiro Kitagawa

Volume 17, issue 3, 2021

The Evolution of US and UK Real GDP Components in the Time-Frequency Domain: A Continuous Wavelet Analysis pp. 233-261 Downloads
Patrick Crowley and Andrew Hughes Hallett
Predicting Recessions in Germany Using the German and the US Yield Curve pp. 263-291 Downloads
Martin Pažický
A Wavelet Evaluation of Some Leading Business Cycle Indicators for the German Economy pp. 293-319 Downloads
Jens J. Krüger
The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Investment in Finland and South Korea pp. 321-337 Downloads
Gene Ambrocio and Tae-Seok Jang

Volume 17, issue 2, 2021

Trend-Cycle Interactions and the Subprime Crisis: Analysis of US and Canadian Output pp. 109-128 Downloads
Max Soloschenko and Enzo Weber
The Time–Frequency Relationship between Oil Price, Stock Returns and Exchange Rate pp. 129-149 Downloads
Sudipta Das
Does Hamilton’s OLS Regression Provide a “better alternative” to the Hodrick-Prescott Filter? A New Zealand Business Cycle Perspective pp. 151-183 Downloads
Viv Hall and Peter Thomson
The Industry Life Cycle in an Economic Downturn: Lessons from Firm’s Behavior in Spain, 2007–2012 pp. 185-214 Downloads
Caridad Maylín-Aguilar and Ángeles Montoro-Sánchez
Predicting the German Economy: Headline Survey Indices Under Test pp. 215-232 Downloads
Robert Lehmann and Magnus Reif

Volume 17, issue 1, 2021

On the Aggregation of Survey-Based Economic Uncertainty Indicators Between Different Agents and Across Variables pp. 1-26 Downloads
Oscar Claveria
Intertemporal Cointegration Model: A New Approach to the Lead–Lag Relationship Between Cointegrated Time Series pp. 27-53 Downloads
Takashi Oga
Growth in US Durables Spending: Assessing the Impact of Consumer Ability and Willingness to Buy pp. 55-69 Downloads
Hamid Baghestani and Sehar Fatima
Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany pp. 71-89 Downloads
Agnieszka Gehringer and Thomas Mayer
Are the European Commission’s Business and Consumer Survey Results Coincident Indicators for Maltese Economic Activity? pp. 91-108 Downloads
Aaron Grech and Reuben Ellul Dimech

Volume 16, issue 2, 2020

Editorial pp. 75-75 Downloads
Michael Graff
Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set pp. 77-97 Downloads
Yongchen Zhao
Disagreements in Consumer Inflation Expectations: Empirical Evidence for a Latin American Economy pp. 99-122 Downloads
Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata and Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro
Machine Learning and Nowcasts of Swedish GDP pp. 123-134 Downloads
Kristian Jönsson
Spanish Economic-Financial Crisis: Social and Academic Interest pp. 135-149 Downloads
Noelia Araújo-Vila, Jose Antonio Fraiz-Brea and Arthur Filipe Araújo
Cyclical Dynamics and Trend/Cycle Definitions: Comparing the HP and Hamilton Filters pp. 151-162 Downloads
Kristian Jönsson

Volume 16, issue 1, 2020

Has the Financial Crisis affected the Real Interest Rate Dynamics in Europe? pp. 1-18 Downloads
Nektarios Aslanidis and Selva Demiralp
Consumers Confidence and Households Consumption in Brazil: Evidence from the FGV Survey pp. 19-34 Downloads
Aloisio Campelo, Viviane Seda Bittencourt and Marco Malgarini
The Challenge of Pairing Big Datasets: Probabilistic Record Linkage Methods and Diagnosis of Their Empirical Viability pp. 35-57 Downloads
Yaohao Peng and Lucas Ferreira Mation
Information Content of Russian Services Surveys pp. 59-74 Downloads
Liudmila Kitrar, Tamara Lipkind and Georgy Ostapkovich

Volume 15, issue 2, 2019

The Determinants of Optimal Exchange Rate Regimes in High and Low Oil-Producing Countries pp. 97-120 Downloads
Eman Elish
What has Changed After the Great Recession on the European Cyclical Patterns? pp. 121-146 Downloads
Ana Rodríguez-Santiago
A PMI-Based Real GDP Tracker for the Euro Area pp. 147-170 Downloads
Gabe de Bondt

Volume 15, issue 1, 2019

Inspecting the Relationship Between Business Confidence and Industrial Production: Evidence on Italian Survey Data pp. 1-24 Downloads
Giancarlo Bruno, L. Crosilla and Patrizia Margani
Measuring Brazilian Economic Uncertainty pp. 25-40 Downloads
Pedro Costa Ferreira, Raíra Marotta B. Vieira, Felipi Bruno Silva and Ingrid C. L. Oliveira
Consumers’ Perception of Inflation in Inflationary and Deflationary Environment pp. 41-71 Downloads
Ewa Stanisławska
CAMPLET: Seasonal Adjustment Without Revisions pp. 73-95 Downloads
Barend Abeln, Jan Jacobs and Pim Ouwehand
Page updated 2023-12-07