The Effect of Communication and Credibility on Fiscal Disagreement: Empirical Evidence from Colombia

Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro (), Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata () and Cristina Isabel Ramos-Barroso ()
Additional contact information
Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro: Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana
Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata: Universidad Autónoma Latinoamericana
Cristina Isabel Ramos-Barroso: Universidad de Medellí
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro, Sr. () and Juan Camilo Anzoátegui Zapata

Journal of Business Cycle Research, 2022, vol. 18, issue 3, No 1, 215-238

Abstract: Abstract This study analyzes the effects of communication and credibility on disagreement in fiscal expectations. We analyze the case of Colombia, a small emerging economy that monitors fiscal expectations through surveys and has made efforts to achieve its fiscal targets. Our methodology consists of observing fiscal targets over time to create a credibility index based on the objectives announced by the government and then estimating the effects of credibility on disagreement. The econometric results show that fulfillment of fiscal targets can reduce disagreement and the effect changes according to the economic cycle. In addition, international risk must also be monitored because it generates uncertainty, fiscal problems, and dispersion in expectations. The main policy recommendation is to improve fiscal policy management by designing more systematic communication strategies to anchor expectations to targets.

Keywords: Disagreements; Fiscal expectations; Communication; Credibility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E37 E61 E62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41549-022-00070-0 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:18:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s41549-022-00070-0

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... nomics/journal/41549

DOI: 10.1007/s41549-022-00070-0

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Business Cycle Research is currently edited by Michael Graff

More articles in Journal of Business Cycle Research from Springer, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().