Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany

Agnieszka Gehringer () and Thomas Mayer
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Agnieszka Gehringer: Cologne University of Applied Sciences
Thomas Mayer: University of Witten-Herdecke

Journal of Business Cycle Research, 2021, vol. 17, issue 1, No 4, 89 pages

Abstract: Abstract This paper introduces a Business Cycle Indicator to compile a transparent and reliable chronology of past business cycle turning points for Germany. The Indicator is derived applying the statistical method of Principal Component Analysis, based on information from 20 economic time series. In this way, the Business Cycle Indicator grasps the development of the broader economic activity and has several advantages over a business cycle assessment based on quarterly series of Gross Domestic Product.

Keywords: Business cycle dating; Recession; Principal component analysis; German economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C82 E32 E65 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1007/s41549-021-00054-6

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