Business Cycle and Early Warning Indicators for the Economy of Hong Kong– Challenges of Forecasting Work amid the COVID-19 Pandemic

Sharon Pun-wai Ng, Eddie Ming-lok Kwok (), Brian Chi-yan Cheng and Alfred Yiu-po Yuen
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Sharon Pun-wai Ng: The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China
Eddie Ming-lok Kwok: The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China
Brian Chi-yan Cheng: The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China
Alfred Yiu-po Yuen: The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China

Journal of Business Cycle Research, 2024, vol. 20, issue 1, No 4, 123-135

Abstract: Abstract This paper discusses the use of the OECD’s framework to identify early warning indicators for building a Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) and the use of the Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) for constructing a short-term forecasting model of economic growth of Hong Kong. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper further evaluates the performance of the CLI and forecasting model which were built based on pre-COVID-19 parameters and identify further adjustments to enhance the model performance.

Keywords: Leading indicators; GDP; Forecasting; Short-term forecast; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E3 E37 O53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s41549-024-00098-4

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