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Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices

Sergey V. Smirnov (), Nikolay V. Kondrashov () and Anna V. Petronevich ()
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Sergey V. Smirnov: National Research University Higher School of Economics
Nikolay V. Kondrashov: National Research University Higher School of Economics
Anna V. Petronevich: National Research University Higher School of Economics

Journal of Business Cycle Research, 2017, vol. 13, issue 1, 53-73

Abstract: Abstract This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Russian economic cycle from the early 1980s to mid-2015. To detect peaks and troughs, we tested nine monthly indices as a reference series, three methods of seasonal adjustments (X-12-ARIMA, TRAMO/SEATS, and CAMPLET), and three methods for dating cyclical turning points (local min/max, Bry–Boschan method, and Markov-switching model). As these more or less formal methods led to different estimates, any sensible choice was only possible on the grounds of informal considerations. The final set of turning points looks plausible and separates expansions and contractions in an explicable manner, but further discussions are needed to establish a consensus between experts.

Keywords: Economic cycle; Turning points; Recession; Russia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Handle: RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:13:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s41549-017-0014-9