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How Informative are Aggregated Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Sami Oinonen () and Maritta Paloviita ()
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Sami Oinonen: Bank of Finland

Journal of Business Cycle Research, 2017, vol. 13, issue 2, 139-163

Abstract: Abstract This study examines short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. We focus on dispersion of forecaster views comparing two sub-groups of survey respondents based on forecast accuracy. We then examine possible differences between regular and irregular forecasters, and assess the impacts of varying panel composition on aggregated survey information. Our analysis indicates that survey participation is not necessarily completely random, i.e., statistically independent of forecaster views or confidence levels. While the study provides evidence that aggregated survey responses are generally a reliable proxy for inflation expectations in the euro area, one should also pay attention to expectations at the micro level, especially in periods of increased forecast uncertainty.

Keywords: Survey data; Aggregated inflation expectations; Euro area; ECB SPF (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E37 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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