How Informative are Aggregated Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Sami Oinonen () and Maritta Paloviita ()
Additional contact information
Sami Oinonen: Bank of Finland

Journal of Business Cycle Research, 2017, vol. 13, issue 2, No 1, 139-163

Abstract: Abstract This study examines short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. We focus on dispersion of forecaster views comparing two sub-groups of survey respondents based on forecast accuracy. We then examine possible differences between regular and irregular forecasters, and assess the impacts of varying panel composition on aggregated survey information. Our analysis indicates that survey participation is not necessarily completely random, i.e., statistically independent of forecaster views or confidence levels. While the study provides evidence that aggregated survey responses are generally a reliable proxy for inflation expectations in the euro area, one should also pay attention to expectations at the micro level, especially in periods of increased forecast uncertainty.

Keywords: Survey data; Aggregated inflation expectations; Euro area; ECB SPF (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41549-017-0017-6 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:13:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s41549-017-0017-6

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... nomics/journal/41549

DOI: 10.1007/s41549-017-0017-6

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Business Cycle Research is currently edited by Michael Graff

More articles in Journal of Business Cycle Research from Springer, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().