COVID-19 and output in Japan

Daisuke Fujii and Taisuke Nakata ()
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Taisuke Nakata: University of Tokyo

The Japanese Economic Review, 2021, vol. 72, issue 4, No 4, 609-650

Abstract: Abstract We build a tractable SIR-macro-model with time-varying parameters and use it to explore various policy questions such as when to lift the state of emergency (SOE). An earlier departure from the SOE results in smaller output loss and more deaths in the short run. However, if the SOE is lifted too early, the number of new cases will surge and another SOE may need to be issued in the future, possibly resulting in both larger output loss and more deaths. That is, the tradeoff between output and infection that exists in the short run does not necessarily exist in the long run. Our model-based analysis—updated weekly since January 2021, frequently reported by media, and presented to policymakers on many occasions—has played a unique role in the policy response to the COVID-19 crisis in Japan.

Keywords: COVID-19; Japan; SIR model; Epidemiological model; Vaccines; State of emergency; Variants (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 E70 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

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Working Paper: Covid-19 and Output in Japan (2021)
Working Paper: Covid-19 and Output in Japan (2021)
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DOI: 10.1007/s42973-021-00098-4

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