Winning probabilities in a pairwise lottery system with three alternatives

Frederick Chen () and Jac Heckelman

Economic Theory, 2005, vol. 26, issue 3, 607-617

Abstract: The pairwise lottery system is a multiple round voting procedure which chooses by lot a winner from a pair of alternatives to advance to the next round where in each round the odds of selection are based on each alternative’s majority rule votes. We develop a framework for determining the asymptotic relative likelihood of the lottery selecting in the final round the Borda winner, Condorcet winner, and Condorcet loser for the three alternative case. We also show the procedure is equivalent to a Borda lottery when only a single round of voting is conducted. Finally, we present an alternative voting rule which yields the same winning probabilities as the pairwise lottery in the limiting case as the number of rounds of the pairwise lottery becomes large. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2005

Keywords: Probabilistic voting; Lottery systems; Markov chain; Majority Rule; Borda Rule; Condorcet Rule. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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DOI: 10.1007/s00199-004-0539-8

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