Analysis of optimal lockdown in integral economic–epidemic model

Natali Hritonenko () and Yuri Yatsenko
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Natali Hritonenko: Prairie View A&M University

Economic Theory, 2024, vol. 77, issue 1, No 8, 235-259

Abstract: Abstract We analyze the optimal lockdown in an economic–epidemic model with realistic infectiveness distribution. The model is described by Volterra integral equations and accurately depicts the COVID-19 infectivity pattern from clinical data. A maximum principle is derived, and a qualitative dynamic analysis of the optimal lockdown problem is provided over finite and infinite horizons. We analytically prove and economically justify the possibility of an endemic scenario when the infection rate begins to climb after the lockdown ends.

Keywords: Optimal lockdown; Epidemic control; Cost minimization; Volterra integral equations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 H51 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s00199-022-01469-7

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