Incorporating social context and co-evolution in an innovation diffusion model—with an application to cleaner vehicles

Marc Dijk (), Rene Kemp and Pieter Valkering

Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 2013, vol. 23, issue 2, 295-329

Abstract: Existing diffusion models have proven less suitable for the analysis of environmental innovations, such as hybrid vehicles, which emerge in a context of changing social appraisal and regulatory support. In this paper, we offer an agent-based analysis of innovation diffusion which is better suitable for those cases. We explore future scenarios of car engine technology with support of a simulation model. In the model, actor behavior is modeled explicitly on the basis of actor frames and the consequent appraisal of technology options by potential adopters and by suppliers. The model is analytically novel in that it incorporates five feedback loops: interactive learning between suppliers and users, scale and learning economies, endogenous taste formation among consumers, and social learning (attribution of meaning). In the model, consumer decisions influence each other and the supply of innovation by shaping R&D and investment decisions of suppliers. The model is applied to explore future diffusion scenarios of clean vehicles, though it starts with simulating recent historic trends, including the quick diffusion of direct fuel injection systems and slow diffusion of electric vehicles in the last 20 years. It is shown that the success of hybrid electric vehicles critically depends on suppliers shifting towards HEV development and production (resulting in greater supply of HEV models) and on consumers valuing hybrid electric vehicles more than environmentally improved diesel vehicles. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

Keywords: Innovation; Diffusion; Conceptual model; Simulation; Co-evolution; Cleaner cars; O31; O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00191-011-0241-5 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:joevec:v:23:y:2013:i:2:p:295-329

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/191/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s00191-011-0241-5

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Evolutionary Economics is currently edited by Uwe Cantner, Elias Dinopoulos, Horst Hanusch and Luigi Orsenigo

More articles in Journal of Evolutionary Economics from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().