V for vaccines and variants

Domenico Delli Gatti, Severin Reissl and Enrico Turco
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Enrico Turco: Catholic University

Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 2023, vol. 33, issue 4, No 2, 1046 pages

Abstract: Abstract In the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, we evaluate the effects of vaccines and virus variants on epidemiological and macroeconomic outcomes by means of Monte Carlo simulations of a macroeconomic-epidemiological agent-based model calibrated using data from the Lombardy region of Italy. From simulations we infer that vaccination plays the role of a mitigating factor, reducing the frequency and the amplitude of contagion waves and significantly improving macroeconomic performance with respect to a scenario without vaccination. The emergence of a variant, on the other hand, plays the role of an accelerating factor, leading to a deterioration of both epidemiological and macroeconomic outcomes and partly negating the beneficial impacts of the vaccine. A new and improved vaccine in turn can redress the situation. Vaccinations and variants, therefore, can be conceived of as drivers of an intertwined cycle impacting both epidemiological and macroeconomic developments.

Keywords: Agent-based models; Epidemic; Covid; Vaccination; Variant (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E21 E22 E24 E27 I12 I15 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s00191-023-00818-6

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