A logarithmic market scoring rule agent-based model to evaluate prediction markets

Athos V. C. Carvalho (), Douglas Silveira, Regis Ely and Daniel O. Cajueiro ()
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Athos V. C. Carvalho: University of Brasilia
Daniel O. Cajueiro: University of Brasilia

Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 2023, vol. 33, issue 4, No 10, 1303-1343

Abstract: Abstract Prediction Markets (PMs) are markets in which agents trade event contingent assets. Enterprises use PMs to forecast revenues and project deadlines. This paper presents an Agent-based model, called Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule-Automated Market Maker (LMSR-ASM), to evaluate Prediction Markets. Our model is capable of testing different types of Automated Market Makers (AMMs), which are mathematical functions or computational mechanisms needed to provide liquidity in Prediction Markets. The model offers insights into how to set parameters in a PM and how profits react to contrasting settings and AMMs. In addition, we simulate different probability processes, distinct AMMs, and agent behaviors. This paper also utilizes the LMSR-ASM to evaluate the impact of choosing initial prices in profits and revenue opportunities regarding AMM computational implementation. We show that we can use the LMSR-ASM to find optimal parameters for maximizing profits in PMs and how different AMMs affect market results under a variety of settings.

Keywords: Agent-based model; Prediction market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C63 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s00191-023-00822-w

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