The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 US presidential election

Leonardo Baccini (), Abel Brodeur and Stephen Weymouth ()
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Leonardo Baccini: McGill University
Stephen Weymouth: Georgetown University

Journal of Population Economics, 2021, vol. 34, issue 2, No 11, 739-767

Abstract: Abstract What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 US presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we estimate the effect of COVID-19 cases and deaths on the change in county-level voting for Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020. To account for potential confounders, we include a large number of COVID-19-related controls as well as demographic and socioeconomic variables. Moreover, we instrument the numbers of cases and deaths with the share of workers employed in meat-processing factories to sharpen our identification strategy. We find that COVID-19 cases negatively affected Trump’s vote share. The estimated effect appears strongest in urban counties, in states without stay-at-home orders, in swing states, and in states that Trump won in 2016. A simple counterfactual analysis suggests that Trump would likely have won re-election if COVID-19 cases had been 5 percent lower. We also find some evidence that COVID-19 incidence had a positive effect on voters’ mobilization, helping Biden win the presidency.

Keywords: COVID-19; Pandemic; Elections; Political behavior; Pre-analysis plan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (26)

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Working Paper: The COVID-19 Pandemic and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election (2021)
Working Paper: The COVID-19 Pandemic and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election (2020)
Working Paper: The COVID-19 Pandemic and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election (2020)
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DOI: 10.1007/s00148-020-00820-3

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