The COVID-19 Pandemic and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Leonardo Baccini (), Abel Brodeur and Stephen Weymouth ()
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Leonardo Baccini: McGill University
Stephen Weymouth: Georgetown University

No 13862, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 U.S. presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we estimate the effect of COVID-19 cases and deaths on the change in county-level voting for Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020. To account for potential confounders, we include a large number of COVID-19-related controls as well as demographic and socioeconomic variables. Moreover, we instrument the numbers of cases and deaths with the share of workers employed in meat-processing factories to sharpen our identification strategy. We find that COVID-19 cases negatively affected Trump's vote share. The estimated effect appears strongest in urban counties, in swing states, and in states that Trump won in 2016. A simple counterfactual analysis suggests that Trump would likely have won re-election if COVID-19 cases had been 5 percent lower. Our paper contributes to the literature of retrospective voting and demonstrates that voters hold leaders accountable for their (mis-)handling of negative shocks.

Keywords: pre-analysis plan; COVID-19; pandemic; elections; political behavior (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42 pages
Date: 2020-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

Published - published in: Journal of Population Economics, 2021, 34 (2), 739-767

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Related works:
Journal Article: The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 US presidential election (2021)
Working Paper: The COVID-19 Pandemic and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election (2021)
Working Paper: The COVID-19 Pandemic and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election (2020)
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