Optimal Population Path Fitting for Flawed Vital Statistics and Censuses

Noël Bonneuil () and Elena Fursa
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Noël Bonneuil: Institut National d’Études Démographiques
Elena Fursa: Federal University of South Russia

Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 2011, vol. 148, issue 2, No 5, 317 pages

Abstract: Abstract A problem, often encountered in the analysis of historical data, is the difficulty in overcoming missing or flawed data. Lotka-McKendrick discrete demographic model, including migration, is combined with stochastic optimization to fit available censuses and vital statistics series to reconstruct missing population data, in the presence of one or two censuses. Simulations help to calibrate the method and determine error weights associated with each data series. An empirical case study is made using data from an administrative subdivision in southern Russia for the period 1863–1916.

Keywords: Lotka-McKendrick; Population reconstruction; Stochastic optimization; Missing data; Imperfect information (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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DOI: 10.1007/s10957-010-9756-4

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