Optimal Immunity Control and Final Size Minimization by Social Distancing for the SIR Epidemic Model

Pierre-Alexandre Bliman (), Michel Duprez (), Yannick Privat () and Nicolas Vauchelet ()
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Pierre-Alexandre Bliman: Inria, Sorbonne Université, Université Paris-Diderot SPC, CNRS, Laboratoire Jacques-Louis Lions, équipe Mamba
Michel Duprez: Inria, équipe MIMESiS, Université de Strasbourg, ICUBE, équipe MLMS
Yannick Privat: Université de Strasbourg, CNRS UMR 7501, INRIA, Institut de Recherche Mathématique Avancée (IRMA)
Nicolas Vauchelet: LAGA, UMR 7539, CNRS, Université Sorbonne Paris Nord

Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 2021, vol. 189, issue 2, No 4, 408-436

Abstract: Abstract The aim of this article is to understand how to apply partial or total containment to SIR epidemic model during a given finite time interval in order to minimize the epidemic final size, that is the cumulative number of cases infected during the complete course of an epidemic. The existence and uniqueness of an optimal strategy are proved for this infinite-horizon problem, and a full characterization of the solution is provided. The best policy consists in applying the maximal allowed social distancing effort until the end of the interval, starting at a date that is not always the closest date and may be found by a simple algorithm. Both theoretical results and numerical simulations demonstrate that it leads to a significant decrease in the epidemic final size. We show that in any case the optimal intervention has to begin before the number of susceptible cases has crossed the herd immunity level, and that its limit is always smaller than this threshold. This problem is also shown to be equivalent to the minimum containment time necessary to stop at a given distance after this threshold value.

Keywords: Optimal control; SIR epidemic model; Herd immunity; Lockdown policy; Epidemic final size; 34H05; 49J15; 49K15; 92D30; 93C15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10957-021-01830-1

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