Estimating the Effect of AfCFTA on Intra-African Trade using Augmented GE-PPML

Hippolyte Fofack (), Richman Dzene and Omar A. Mohsen Hussein
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Hippolyte Fofack: African Export-Import Bank
Richman Dzene: African Export-Import Bank
Omar A. Mohsen Hussein: African Export-Import Bank

Journal of African Trade, 2021, vol. 8, issue 2, 62-76

Abstract: Abstract This paper draws on a general equilibrium poisson pseudo maximum likelihood model augmented by a dynamic capital accumulation to estimate the effects of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) on intra-African trade flows. The empirical results show that the AfCFTA could raise intra-African trade by 24% in the short term and slightly more in the long run. However, the potential trade and welfare gains associated with the continental trade integration reform are expected to vary across countries, with the largest gains accruing to countries that exhibit relatively low intra-regional trade performance and level of integration pre-AfCFTA.

Keywords: AfCFTA; GEPPML; International trade agreements; CGE; MRT; RTA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F14 F16 F17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.2991/jat.k.211122.001

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