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Probabilistic seismic hazard of Pakistan, Azad-Jammu and Kashmir

Z. Rafi (), C. Lindholm (), H. Bungum (), A. Laghari and Naeem Ahmed

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2012, vol. 61, issue 3, 1317-1354

Abstract: The seismic hazard study for Pakistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir has been conducted by using probabilistic approach in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) in m/s 2 and also seismic hazard response spectra for different cities. A new version of Ambraseys et al. (Bull Earthq Eng 3:1–53, 2005 ) ground acceleration model is used, and parameterization is based on most recent updated earthquake catalogs that consisted of 14,000 events. The threshold magnitude was fixed at M w 4.8, but seismic zones like northern Pakistan–Tajikistan, Hindukush and northern Afghanistan–Tajikistan border had M w 5.2. The average normalized ‘a’ and ‘b’ values for all zones are 6.15 and 0.95, respectively. Seismicity of study area was modeled, and ground motion was computed for eight frequencies (0.025, 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5 s) for different annual exceedance rates of 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, 0.002 and 0.001 (return periods 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1,000 years) for stiff rocks at the gridding of 0.1° × 0.1°. Seismic hazard maps based on computed PGA for 0.02, 0.01 and 0.002 annual exceedance are prepared. These maps indicate the earthquake hazard of Pakistan and surrounding areas in the form of acceleration contour lines, which are in agreement with geological and seismotectonic characteristics of the study area. The maximum seismic hazard values are found at Muzaffarabad, Gilgit and Quetta areas. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Keywords: Peak ground acceleration; Attenuation; Hazard assessment; Recurrence; Response spectra; Probabilistic approach; Deaggregation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9984-4

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