Diffusion and spatial equilibrium of a social norm: voting participation in the United States, 1920–2008

Stephen Coleman

Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, 2014, vol. 48, issue 3, 1769-1783

Abstract: Social conformity can spread social norms and behaviors through a society. This research examines such a process geographically and over time for voting, which is strongly influenced by the norm that citizens should vote. A mathematical model for the spread of voting participation under the influence of social conformity is developed based on the diffusion equation, and predictions are tested with spatial analysis of state-level voter turnout in American presidential elections from 1920 to 2008. Results show that voter turnout has converged to a stable equilibrium in its geographical distribution across the states—but it is an equilibrium that results in persistent differences at the state level. Results are compared to individual-level and agent-based models. The model may be applied to other types of social diffusion that depend on specific geographical location. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Keywords: Social norm; Voter turnout; Social conformity; Spatial model; Equilibrium; Diffusion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Working Paper: Diffusion and Spatial Equilibrium of a Social Norm: Voting Participation in the United States, 1920-2008 (2012)
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DOI: 10.1007/s11135-013-9873-x

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