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Diffusion and Spatial Equilibrium of a Social Norm: Voting Participation in the United States, 1920-2008

Stephen Coleman

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Social conformity can spread social norms and behaviors through a society. This research examines such a process geographically and over time for voting, which is strongly influenced by the norm that citizens should vote. A mathematical model for the spread of voting participation under the influence of social conformity is developed based on the diffusion equation, and predictions are tested with spatial analysis of state-level voter turnout in American presidential elections from 1920 to 2008. Results show that voter turnout has converged to a stable equilibrium in its geographical distribution across the states—but it is an equilibrium that results in persistent differences at the state level. Turnout increases about one percentage point with each degree of latitude.

Keywords: social norm; voter turnout; social conformity; spatial model; equilibrium; diffusion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C02 C21 D72 Z13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-12-31
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-pol, nep-soc and nep-ure
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Journal Article: Diffusion and spatial equilibrium of a social norm: voting participation in the United States, 1920–2008 (2014) Downloads
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