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Bayesian Analysis of Double Seasonal Autoregressive Models

Ayman A. Amin ()
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Ayman A. Amin: Menoufia University

Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, 2020, vol. 82, issue 2, No 6, 328-352

Abstract: Abstract In this paper we use the Gibbs sampling algorithm to present a Bayesian analysis to multiplicative double seasonal autoregressive (DSAR) models, considering both estimation and prediction problems. Assuming the model errors are normally distributed and using natural conjugate and g priors on the initial values and model parameters, we show that the conditional posterior distributions of the model parameters and variance are multivariate normal and inverse gamma respectively, and the conditional predictive distribution of the future observations is a multivariate normal. Using these closed-form conditional posterior and predictive distributions, we apply the Gibbs sampling to approximate empirically the marginal posterior and predictive distributions, enabling us easily to carry out multiple-step ahead predictions. The proposed Bayesian method is evaluated using simulation study and real-world time series dataset.

Keywords: Multiplicative seasonal autoregressive; Multiple seasonality; Posterior analysis; Predictive analysis; MCMC methods; Gibbs sampler; Internet traffic data; Primary 37M10; Secondary 62F15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s13571-019-00192-z

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Handle: RePEc:spr:sankhb:v:82:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s13571-019-00192-z