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Primary elections and electoral outcomes: evidence from the Spanish Socialist Party

Riccardo Ciacci (), Ana Garcia-Hernandez (), Jorge García-Hombrados (), Laura Gismera () and Antonio Núñez-Partido ()
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Riccardo Ciacci: Universidad Pontificia Comillas
Ana Garcia-Hernandez: Universidad del Rosario and Innovations for Poverty Action Colombia
Jorge García-Hombrados: Universidad Autónoma de Madrid and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Laura Gismera: Universidad Pontificia Comillas
Antonio Núñez-Partido: Universidad Pontificia Comillas

Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Jorge Garcia Hombrados ()

SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, No 11, 363-396

Abstract: Abstract Using a regression discontinuity design and primary elections to select Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) mayoral candidates as a case study, this paper investigates the causal link between primary elections and electoral outcomes. The results suggest that selecting the PSOE’s mayoral candidate through primary elections has no effect on the percentage of votes and total votes received by the PSOE’s candidate in local elections, the probability of gaining the mayorship and the local government’s stability. On the other hand, the results suggest that PSOE’s primary elections result in increased votes for competing political parties to the right of the PSOE and in reduced votes for competing parties to the left of the PSOE.

JEL-codes: D7 D72 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s13209-021-00246-4

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SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association is currently edited by Nezih Guner

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