Discrete choice under risk and model uncertainty

Wei Ma ()
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Wei Ma: Shandong University

Social Choice and Welfare, 2025, vol. 65, issue 2, No 1, 307 pages

Abstract: Abstract This paper studies the aggregation of discrete choice models under risk. We propose a unanimity condition: if every model predicts one item is chosen more frequently from a menu than another, so should the aggregate model. We show that this condition entails the aggregate model must be a mixture of the individual models. This result provides a behavioral characterization of the Bayesian model averaging method for discrete choice models under risk. As an application of the result, we examine the aggregation of a continuum of probability measures.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s00355-024-01573-8

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