Short-Term Projection Using the Monetary Efficiency Index

E. V. Balatsky () and N. A. Ekimova
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E. V. Balatsky: Center for Macroeconomic Studies of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
N. A. Ekimova: Center for Macroeconomic Studies of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2018, vol. 29, issue 4, 423-432

Abstract: Abstract This article has presented a short-term macroeconomic indicator, the index of monetary efficiency, which is an aggregate of two subindices, i.e., monetary stability and monetary freedom. An econometric model has been constructed, in which the GDP depends on the index of monetary efficiency with a lag of 8 months, which allows for the proactive prediction of economic growth. All analytical tools have been evaluated based on the statistical data of the Bank of Russia with a monthly breakdown.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1134/S1075700718040020

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