Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan

S. N. Alpysbaeva (), Sh. Zh. Shuneev, N. N. Zhanakova and A. A. Bakdolotov
Additional contact information
S. N. Alpysbaeva: Economic Research Institute
Sh. Zh. Shuneev: Economic Research Institute
N. N. Zhanakova: Economic Research Institute
A. A. Bakdolotov: Economic Research Institute

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2021, vol. 32, issue 4, 445-453

Abstract: Abstract This paper identifies key risks of the public sector in Kazakhstan. Methods for modeling potential output and output gap in international research practice and their application in countercyclical fiscal policy are considered. The potential output of Kazakhstan is retrospectively analyzed using the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter. Periods of the procyclical budgetary policy are identified. It is proposed to introduce a fiscal model of the structural budget balance, to target a zero output gap in the short term, and to increase the potential output through structural reforms.

Keywords: potential output; output gap; modeling; countercyclical fiscal policy; fiscal impulse; fiscal rules (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1134/S1075700721040031

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