Economics at your fingertips  

Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan

S. N. Alpysbaeva (), Sh. Zh. Shuneev, N. N. Zhanakova and A. A. Bakdolotov
Additional contact information
S. N. Alpysbaeva: Economic Research Institute
Sh. Zh. Shuneev: Economic Research Institute
N. N. Zhanakova: Economic Research Institute
A. A. Bakdolotov: Economic Research Institute

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2021, vol. 32, issue 4, 445-453

Abstract: Abstract This paper identifies key risks of the public sector in Kazakhstan. Methods for modeling potential output and output gap in international research practice and their application in countercyclical fiscal policy are considered. The potential output of Kazakhstan is retrospectively analyzed using the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter. Periods of the procyclical budgetary policy are identified. It is proposed to introduce a fiscal model of the structural budget balance, to target a zero output gap in the short term, and to increase the potential output through structural reforms.

Keywords: potential output; output gap; modeling; countercyclical fiscal policy; fiscal impulse; fiscal rules (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.springer ... nomics/journal/11507

DOI: 10.1134/S1075700721040031

Access Statistics for this article

Studies on Russian Economic Development is currently edited by Viktor V. Ivanter, Dmitrii B. Kuvalin and Galina A. Yaremenko

More articles in Studies on Russian Economic Development from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().

Page updated 2022-05-12
Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:32:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1134_s1075700721040031