Long-term Forecast of Agricultural Development in Russia Based on an Economic and Mathematical Model

I. G. Ushachev (), M. V. Kharina and V. S. Chekalin
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I. G. Ushachev: All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Economy (ARRIAE)
M. V. Kharina: All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Economy (ARRIAE)
V. S. Chekalin: All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Economy (ARRIAE)

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2022, vol. 33, issue 3, 282-292

Abstract: Abstract— This article presents a long-term forecast for the development of agriculture based on a linear optimization model. In ARRIAE, this model is applied to make long-term forecasts for the development of agriculture and individual agro-based industries. The proposed model (partial equilibrium) is used to optimize the distribution of tangible and cost resources in agriculture by the criterion of maximizing food consumption for the population of Russia. The guidelines for compiling a long-term forecast were macroeconomic parameters and directions of the long-term development in the national economy including the agro-industrial complex described in [1–6]. Model calculations were used in designing the Strategy for the Development of the Agro-Industrial and Fishery Complexes of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 [6] in terms of forecast volumes and indices of agricultural development for 2030. The forecast was made for two scenarios: target (optimistic) and “no-change” (pessimistic), depending on the emerging system of relations in the sector and in the Russian economy.

Keywords: long-term forecast; economic and mathematical model; agro-industrial complex; agriculture (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1134/S1075700722030157

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