Interregional Labor Migration in Russia: Modeling and Assessing the Consequences

E. A. Edinak () and D. M. Ksenofontov
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E. A. Edinak: Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences
D. M. Ksenofontov: Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2023, vol. 34, issue 5, 684-695

Abstract: Abstract— The article describes the main socio-economic consequences of short-term interregional labor migration and presents some estimates for Russia. A new tool for forecasting intracountry flows of migrant workers, which differs from those previously used in the scientific literature is proposed. The model, taking into account a number of factors, through the estimation parameters over the retrospective period selects the distribution function of the total labor flow by region, based on which scenario calculations of future incoming migration flows are implemented depending on the regional dynamics associated with the development of the macroeconomic situation. Based on the forecast vectors, matrices (checkerboards) of labor migration for each forecast year have been reconstructed. It is concluded that even low rates of economic development will be a factor affecting the growth in the number of internal labor migrants. Despite the fact that several scenarios have been considered, given the higher growth rates for the regions of Asian Russia, the spatial structure of labor migration remains stable relative to the reporting period, which also “preserves” the socio-economic consequences of labor migration for the regions.

Keywords: interregional labor migration; migration checkerboard; modeling; forecasting; spatial dynamics; regions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1134/S1075700723050052

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