Oil Exporting Countries: Analysis of Economic Growth Opportunities Through Export Diversification in a Low-Carbon World

S. V. Zhukov, I. A. Kopytin, A. O. Maslennikov () and M. V. Sinitsyn
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S. V. Zhukov: Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences
I. A. Kopytin: Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences
A. O. Maslennikov: Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences
M. V. Sinitsyn: Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2023, vol. 34, issue 5, 573-582

Abstract: Abstract— In the article, the problems of the development of merchandise exports of three post-Soviet oil exporters—Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia and the three largest oil exporters of the Persian Gulf—Iran, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are studied based on the analysis of disaggregated export–import flows using the approaches of complexity economics and the structuralist school, taking into account the carbon trace of export goods. It is concluded that in a low-carbon world, the opportunities to increase exports for post-Soviet oil exporters by diversifying into goods that are most technologically close to the country’s current production capabilities are relatively limited. Gulf oil exporters will benefit from such a strategy in terms of the size of their potential export markets. To ensure the sustainability of economic growth, Russia and Kazakhstan need to diversify into new export goods, which requires the creation of modern production facilities.

Keywords: : oil exporting countries; export diversification; revealed comparative advantages; economic complexity; relative distance in the product space (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1134/S1075700723050179

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