Prospects for the Implementation of the World Energy Transition Scenarios

A. Yu. Kolpakov (), Yu. V. Zinchenko and A. A. Galinger
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A. Yu. Kolpakov: Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences
Yu. V. Zinchenko: Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences
A. A. Galinger: Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2023, vol. 34, issue 6, 820-829

Abstract: Abstract— The authors analyzed several dozens of public scenarios of the global energy transition and, on their basis, developed four of their own scenarios, which are notable for the ambitiousness in reduction of global energy CO2 emissions. Based on their own methodology, the authors estimated the ratio of energy costs to GDP for each developed scenario in order to understand their feasibility. The scenarios that provide conditions for keeping the growth of the average global temperature within 1.5°С can be considered unfeasible due to economic constraints. The scenario of nationally determined contributions made by countries to the Paris Agreement makes it possible to reduce global CO2 emissions by more than 20% by 2050 and can be considered possible, but for its implementation the world economy must operate in the mode of maximum possible energy costs for several decades.

Keywords: carbon dioxide; emissions; energy transition; energy; economic development; electricity; Paris Agreement; scenarios; sustainable development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1134/S1075700723060072

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