Target Scenario of Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions Socio-Economic Development of Russia for the Period until 2060

A. A. Shirov and A. Yu. Kolpakov ()
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A. A. Shirov: Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences
A. Yu. Kolpakov: Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2023, vol. 34, issue 6, 758-768

Abstract: Abstract— The article considers methodological and practical issues of assessing the effects of measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the context of development and implementation of a strategy of Russia’s socio-economic development. The authors substantiate the relevance of investments in decarbonization measures, as well as the associated benefits (demand for the products of fund-creating industries) and costs (price increases and negative consumer reaction). The target scenario of low greenhouse gas emissions socio-economic development of Russia is based on a predictive and analytical toolkit based on the input/output method and on the database of the National Inventory of Anthropogenic Emissions. The target scenario combines an active economic policy with ambitious actions towards reducing net emissions: within the scenario, the average annual growth rate of Russia’s GDP is 2.6% and carbon neutrality is achieved by 2060. A more aggressive scenario of ensuring carbon neutrality by 2050 is characterized by significantly worse indicators of economic efficiency.

Keywords: socio-economic development; climate policy; greenhouse gases; carbon dioxide; emissions; energy; scenarios; input/output; LULUCF (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1134/S1075700723060151

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