Study of Directions and Associated Costs in Reducing Carbon Emissions in the Electric Power Industry until 2050, Taking Into Account Intersectoral Factors

F. V. Veselov (), A. A. Khorshev, I. V. Erokhina and R. O. Alikin
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F. V. Veselov: Energy Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
A. A. Khorshev: Energy Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
I. V. Erokhina: Energy Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
R. O. Alikin: Energy Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2023, vol. 34, issue 6, 778-785

Abstract: Abstract— The article examines the specifics of the formation of scenarios for the development of the electric power industry in Russia (including district heating) as an integral part of the scenarios for the decarbonization of the national economy. Technological opportunities for reducing carbon emissions through the development of low-carbon and carbon-free technologies for the production of electricity and heat are considered. The potential impact of the cross-sectoral factor—large-scale electrification, replacement of fossil fuels with electricity—on the volume of electricity consumption is estimated. Using the EPOS energy planning optimization model, various forecasts of the structure of electricity and district heat production up to 2050 are obtained, taking into account options for carbon emission quotas and the development of electric transport. Increases in total capital investments and total energy supply costs are determined, which are necessary for a more intensive growth of generating capacities and a low-carbon transformation of their technological structure while reducing carbon emissions in the electric power industry, taking into account increased demand.

Keywords: electric power industry; carbon emissions; power generation; electricity consumption; electric transport; carbon-free technologies; modeling; optimization; energy planning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1134/S1075700723060175

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