Inflational Surge in the Second Half of the 2020s. Forecast Based on US Data on Commodity Prices and Minimum Wage Since 1946

S. V. Anureev ()
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S. V. Anureev: Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2024, vol. 35, issue 1, 116-125

Abstract: Abstract The article proves a number of the author’s hypotheses about inflation in the United States: unexpected jumps in inflation are required to reduce the budget deficit and public debt to inflated GDP; these jumps and their fading are caused by greater amplitude of commodity prices; the key leading indicator of inflation is the level and plans to increase the federal minimum wage (FMW), as a reflection of the indexation of budget expenditures; there are usually two inflation spikes, with an intermediate fading to lower inflation expectations. These indicators are studied through data analysis since 1946, as well as a formalized logical-statistical model, similar to fundamental and technical analysis of financial markets. The next jump in US consumer prices is projected for 2025–2027 in the level of inflation in 2021–2022, which will require an increase in commodity prices, important for the Russian economy.

Keywords: federal budget; public debt; minimum wage; indexation; consumer inflation; raw material price index; oil prices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724010027

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